Research into Southern Oscillation (SO) phenomena and related sea surface temperature is providing promising results concerning the ability to improve long-range climate forecasts. This study asks whether SO event information would be of value to Texas corn (Zea mays L.) and sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench] producers. Simple ordinary least squares regressions suggest that an El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event increases preseason rainfall by approximately 3 in., whereas, a cold SO event decreases rainfall by 4 in. These extreme phases appeared to have no impact on growing season precipitation. Economic results indicate that SO information is more valuable for corn than sorghum producers. The value of SO information ranged from $1 to $2/acre for corn production, depending on price. For sorghum, use of SO information had no value.
Journal of Production Agriculture