Utilising a farm-level decision model to help prioritise future climate prediction research needs | Academic Article individual record
abstract

A whole-farm-level decision model is used to examine the impact of the type of decisions producers make on the value of seasonal climate forecasts. Results suggest that precipitation forecasts directed towards crop mix and applied nitrogen level decisions would have the largest economic value. Further, the results show that the economic value of climate forecasts cannot be obtained by examining only a small set of decision types. Rather, all decision types must be modelled to value seasonal precipitation forecasts correctly. This occurs because in response to seasonal climate forecasts changes in one type of decision may override the need to change other decision types. Finally, forecasts of precipitation during the crop tasselling and grain filling stages may be more valuable than precipitation forecasts for earlier crop growth periods.

publication outlet

Meteorological Applications

author list (cited authors)
Mjelde, J. W., Thompson, T. N., Nixon, C. J., & Lamb, P. J.
publication date
1997
publisher
Wiley Publisher
citation count

24

identifier
131813SE
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
start page
161
end page
170
volume
4
issue
2